Take advantage of any little break you get in the weather. As I read emails from producers around the province, that’s a theme that emerges this year. Whether it was seeding, weed control, or now harvest, the producers with the best success are those who jumped on any reasonable window of opportunity to get the equipment rolling. It doesn’t always work that way. Some years you kick yourself for pushing the envelope. You regret not waiting for more optimal conditions. Patience would have been the correct course of action. This year, optimal conditions for field work have been fleeting. Jumping the gun has been the right decision. So far, the wet pattern that has prevailed throughout the growing season shows no sign of changing. Hopefully, we’ll get a break and see an extended dry spell at some point. In the meantime, there will be combines rolling and lots of tough and even damp grain going into aeration bins whenever an opportunity arises. It’s better to be putting tough grain into aeration now versus a month from now. I’m Kevin Hursh.
It could be considered an inadvertent intercropping experiment. Over the years, a number of farmers have tried growing peas with canola. This year, I have a 170 acre field that’s a mixture of large green lentils and oriental mustard. It wasn’t intentional. By the time I realized there were so many mustard volunteers in the lentil crop, the lentils were getting pretty advanced to do anything about it. Then there was another big rain and I decided to just let it go. When the mustard flowered, it looked like a mustard crop, but beneath the yellow blooms there was a good lentil crop. Both matured about the same time and I used Reglone as a desiccant, which is a registered product on both. If anything, it has been easier to combine the mixture than lentils alone. The gross yield was approximately 35 bushels an acre. I bought an old rotary screen cleaner and with it too wet to continue combining we’re now in the process of separating the seed. So far, there appears to be nearly 15 per cent mustard. It’ll be interesting to see how the yield and quality compares with my other lentil crops where there aren’t tame mustard volunteers. I’m Kevin Hursh.
There is a wide range in quality over the limited amount of crop that’s been harvested. Within the lentil crop, a lot of disease and sprouting is evident, although there has also been some good quality harvested. With the weather this week, you have to think the quality of many crops is going to take a further hit. This is especially true on the eastern Prairies where there has been a lot of rain in the past couple of weeks and more rain is forecast. In addition to bleaching, sprouting and disease, the rain and cool weather is further delaying maturity. When the clouds finally clear, frost might not be far behind. It’s that time of year. The days are getting shorter and we can’t seem to get a sustained period of warm, dry weather. It’s been a difficult growing season and so far the same pattern is holding for harvest. We really need a repeat of last year’s abnormally hot and dry September. Otherwise the Saskatchewan crop is going to have below average quality as well as below normal quantity. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Livestock prices are a lot better than a year ago. The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture publishes a Market Trends report that lists current grain and livestock prices versus the price one year earlier. A1 steers in Saskatchewan are currently listed at 90 cents a pound. A year ago, the price was 82 cents. D1 / D2 cows are a lot better at around 59 cents as compared to only 39 cents last year. With the fall calf run approaching, a lot of cow-calf producers will be following the price of feeder calves. The report lists the current price of 500 to 600 pound steer calves at $1.20 a pound, versus $1.09 last year. That’s roughly another $60 per calf. While that’s helpful, prices will have to increase further to provide a decent return. Many livestock analysts and observers believe cattle prices will indeed continue to strengthen. Look at the big turnaround in the hog industry. A year ago, Index 100 market hogs in Saskatchewan were around $95 per hundred kilograms. Now prices are in the $150 to $160 range. That’s the kind of increase cow-calf producers would like to see. I’m Kevin Hursh.
A rising tide is supposed to raise all the ships, but some grain prices have increased a lot more than others. Wheat, durum and barley price expectations took a major jump yesterday in the CWB’s newest Pool Return Outlook. Top quality spring wheat is up by nearly $1.50 a bushel. The price expectation for No. 1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein is now an average of nearly $6 a bushel net Saskatchewan. The PRO on top quality durum saw an increase of just over a dollar a bushel. No. 1 durum with 13 per cent protein now has a PRO of just over $5 a bushel. Malting barley is up by a dollar a bushel and now sits at $4.13 net Saskatchewan. Cereal prices still pale in comparison to canola, which has been around $10 a bushel and flax which is quoted at around $13. Price quotes approaching 30 cents a pound are now being seen for top quality large green lentils. Crops that you’d have to rate as disappointing include peas, mustard and canaryseed. Yellow pea prices remain under $5.50 a bushel, yellow mustard is only about 24 cents a pound and canaryseed is struggling to hit 20 cents. While some crop prices are in the upper range of historical bids, others are certainly not. I’m Kevin Hursh.
I spent some time yesterday north of Humboldt looking at the greatly expanded lakes, washed out roads and rushing culverts. Thousands of acres of crop land and pasture have been lost to flooding. Some forty year old houses have water problems in their basements for the first time ever. Rural municipalities are fighting with the federal Department of Fisheries over the unwanted water that’s flooding farm fields. Coincidentally, I received an email yesterday from a producer in the Humboldt area who says there are many local situations where more than 30 inches of rain has fallen this spring and summer. He says producers are already preparing to tow out combines which are likely to get mired in mud once the harvest begins. Grain carts are expensive, but in high demand because trucks will have difficulty navigating the soft fields. And everyone is looking ahead to the disaster that could be coming next spring. Given even a normal amount of snow over the winter, where is all the water going to go when the soil is already saturated? I’m Kevin Hursh.
With the growing season drawing to a close, the accumulated precipitation maps tell an amazing tale. Since April 1, there has been a record high amount of precipitation over about 40 per cent of the Saskatchewan grain belt. This record spills over into the east central region of Alberta and some northern parts of the Manitoba grain belt, but the majority of the record high area is in Saskatchewan. According to the maps published by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the entire Saskatchewan grain belt has had above normal growing season precip. In the Prairies as a whole, the only area below normal is the Peace River region of Alberta. In fact, most of the Prairies have exceeded normal growing season precipitation by more than 120 mm, which is nearly five inches. The rainfall totals are incredible. Most parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba have received over 400 mm. That’s over 16 inches. Many areas are over 18 inches and some are over 20. The traditionally dry regions are happy about the recharge of ground and surface water. Areas that often suffer from too much rain are wondering when their sloughs and lakes will ever recede. To view precipitation maps, just Google “Drought Watch” and go to the current maps of the Prairie region. I’m Kevin Hursh.
There are major developments in the feed barley market. Drought in Russia and Ukraine and restricted exports from those major feed barley suppliers has meant a significant increase in offshore prices. Suddenly, the export market can compete with what Canadian producers are receiving for feed barley in the domestic market. Our domestic livestock industry is going to have to pay more or else substitute barley with corn or Distillers Dried Grains from the U.S. The Canadian Wheat Board says it has sold over 200,000 tonnes of export feed barley in recent weeks. Producers can enter into three way Guaranteed Delivery Contracts involving the CWB and a grain company. The CWB has a guaranteed in-store price and a delivery period. Producers negotiate the freight and handling with the grain company. The CWB says the most recent contracts have had a guaranteed price of $215 a tonne basis Vancouver. By my arithmetic, that should equate to prices of well over $3 a bushel in Saskatchewan. The CWB says contract prices have been continually increasing as new tenders are awarded. Producers can call the CWB to find out more or call elevator companies to see if they’re participating in any tenders. I’m Kevin Hursh.
The long-anticipated Statistics Canada report on field crop production that came out on Friday has a lot of questionable numbers. As expected, there’s a big increase in Saskatchewan’s summerfallow acres due to all the land too wet to seed. Stat Can pegs summerfallow at 9.67 million acres, an increase of 5.5 million acres from last year. However, the provincial government has estimated 8 million acres were too wet to seed. On top of that, millions of acres that were seeded have been flooded out. When you compare the Stat Can estimates of seeded acres versus harvested acres, it’s tough to see where all this flooded land has gone. I also think some of the yield estimates are out to lunch. For instance, the Saskatchewan lentil yield is estimated at 1400 pounds an acre. Looking back at data all the way to 1998, that’s the highest lentil yield in all those years. I have a tough time buying that. While big yields are estimated on lentils as well as mustard and canaryseed, yield estimates are down substantially from last year in oats, barley, canola and wheat. After surveying 4,800 Saskatchewan farmers, Stat Can should have accurate production estimates, but I’m not convinced. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Reopening the Mexican market for Canadian canaryseed is taking a lot longer than most observers expected. The problem is Mexico’s list of quarantine weed seeds which includes wild buckwheat and stinkweed. Canada and Mexico have been unable to come to terms on how to minimize these weed seeds in canaryseed shipments. Mexico is our largest customer for canaryseed and shipments have been disrupted since late June. The Board of the Canadian Special Crops Association has now declared Force Majeure on canaryseed exports destined for Mexico. This trade rule clause basically says that unusual events have precluded the execution of contracts. The Canadian Special Crops Association says it has worked with the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, canaryseed exporters, Mexican importers and the Canadian government in an attempt to resolve the issue. The backlog of canaryseed shipments at the border has been addressed, but it’s not clear how future shipments will be handled. Most market analysts believe canaryseed prices will strengthen when exports to Mexico resume. Unfortunately, a deal to bring about the resumption of trade remains elusive. I’m Kevin Hursh.