Hursh Consulting & Communications: Kevin Hursh on Agriculture

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Hursh on Agriculture

June 29, 2005

PMRA should have communications role
The Canadian Association of Agri-Retailers is making an interesting point. Why doesn’t the Pest Management Regulatory Agency defend its regulatory system? The association, representing crop protection and nutrient retailers, recently appeared before the House Standing Committee on Agriculture in Ottawa to make that point. Many people in the general public don’t even know that the Pest Management Regulatory Agency or PMRA exists. They don’t know the exhaustive testing required for registering a pesticide. They have no idea how wide the margin of safety needs to be. No one is providing this information in an effective format. On the other side, there are lots of groups running around claiming health risks, quoting obscure studies and spreading misinformation. Many cities across the country are considering pesticide bans. They want to ban the little bit of 2,4-D you might use on your lawn while emissions from the constant flow of automobiles are considered normal. The public perception of risk is out of whack when it comes to pesticides. The PMRA should be playing an active role in setting the record straight. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 28, 2005

Burdensome durum and canola stocks
If the projections are correct, the carryover of canola and durum is going to get even bigger. The Market Analysis Division of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projects the durum carryover at the end of the current crop year will be a record 2.65 million tonnes. Despite a projected 3 per cent drop in durum production, the carryover by the end of the new crop year is expected to increase by an additional 17 per cent to 3.1 million tonnes. In canola, stocks are also burdensome. For 2005-06, projections call for domestic crush and exports to increase slightly, but still remain pressured by large world soybean and palm oil supplies. Canola carryout stocks are expected to rise even further by the end of the new crop year, reaching a projected 2.1 million tonnes. That would be just slightly under the record set in 1999-2000. The good news is that stockpiles of our wheat and barley are expected to decline significantly in the year ahead. That’s based on the assumption that our wheat and barley quality will return to normal so that more can be exported. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 27, 2005

No Manitoba envy over crops this year
Over the years, Saskatchewan producers have often looked east with envy at crops in Manitoba. Not this year. Overall, Saskatchewan has far better crops than our neighbours to the east. The crop report from Manitoba Agriculture says fields barely start to dry before they’re hit with more rain. Lots of fields have flooding and lots of crops have pale, stunted growth. Hundreds of thousands of acres were never seeded. Many acres were seeded after the crop insurance deadline. There are areas in Manitoba where crops are doing all right, but overall the potential has been cut dramatically. The latest crop report from Saskatchewan Agriculture paints a far more optimistic picture. Over 80 per cent of provincial crops are in good to excellent condition. The percentage rated as poor is miniscule. In addition, most crops are at or ahead of normal development. Last year at this time, Saskatchewan crops were over 60 percent good to excellent, but up to 85 per cent of them were behind normal development. We’re in a lot better shape this year. In fact, rarely are conditions this promising. Hopefully, we’ll be able to celebrate a very good crop along with the 100th anniversary of the province. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 26, 2005

Q & A on the positive case of BSE found in a U.S. cow
Question: Why did previous tests give inconclusive results?
Answer: The USDA says the animal had a very low level of abnormal prion protein in the brain. Additionally the abnormalities were isolated, making it possible for one sample to test negative while another might test positive.
Question: Where was the animal born?
Answer: The USDA is still going through some DNA testing, but at this point there is no evidence the animal was imported.
Question: Will this change R-CALF’s opposition to live cattle imports from Canada?
Answer: No. The protectionist farm group continues to use selective and often erroneous information to claim Canadian cattle are a threat.
Question: Will the discovery raise BSE fears among American consumers?
Answer: Unlikely. Indications are the cow was born before the ruminant-to-ruminant feed ban. The carcass was incinerated and did not enter the food or feed system.
The Big Question: Will this American case of BSE help open the border to Canadian cattle?
Answer: It’s in the hands of the American legal system with critical court cases on July 13 and July 27. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 23, 2005

Canaryseed, mustard and chickpeas acreages
Canaryseed and mustard acreages have returned to more manageable levels in Saskatchewan. The new seeded acreage estimate from Statistics Canada shows mustard has dropped from 640,000 acres last year to 435,000 this year. That’s lower than the ten- year average. Canaryseed has dropped even further. Last year, we had record canaryseed acreage at 840,000. The estimate for this year is 480,000. That’s a big drop, but canaryseed acreage is still a bit higher than the ten-year average. With the big carryover of mustard and canaryseed and with good yield prospects so far this year, we shouldn’t expect any big price improvements. However, the acreage drops should prevent us from drowning in product come this fall. The Stats Can number on chickpeas is interesting. Saskatchewan chickpea acreage peaked in 2001 at 1.15 million acres. By last year, it had crashed to just 100,000 acres. This year, the trend has reversed. Chickpea acreage has increased to 160,000. The price for desi chickpeas is very low, but kabuli chickpea prices are attractive. Those price prospects have apparently encouraged more acres of what can be a difficult crop to grow. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 22, 2005

Heat units are near normal
Despite heavy rains and surplus moisture, we’ve now received near normal heat units across the prairie region. At the Canadian Wheat Board’s weather and crop briefing on Wednesday, heat unit maps were presented comparing this year with last year. At this point in 2004, heat units were only 50 to 75 per cent of normal across most of the prairie region. The situation is much better this year. Since the first of May, about half of Saskatchewan is at 75 to 85 per cent of normal heat unit accumulation while the balance of the province and most of the rest of the prairie region is at 85 to 100 per cent of normal. The calculation is up until June 19. The past few warm days should have narrowed the shortfall even further. Last year, there was a bumper crop coming in most areas, but it was late and the frost was early. The result was disastrous. This year, there was a lot of crop seeded around the beginning of June and that crop is late. However, earlier seeded crops have had the heat to develop. With the moisture and the heat, you can almost see them growing. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 21, 2005

No dry spots heading into summer
All of the agricultural area of the prairie region has now had normal or above normal precipitation since the beginning of the growing season. That’s amazing. It’s the beginning of summer and there is no farmland on the prairies running at a moisture deficit. Usually, even in wet years, there are some areas that miss out. Central and northern Alberta was running below normal a week ago, but not now. Precipitation maps from the PFRA show those areas are now at average precipitation since April first. The further south and west you go in Alberta the wetter it is. Saskatchewan is wet as well. A few small areas are listed as about average for growing season precip, but the vast majority of the grain belt is listed as above average to well above average. With all the flooding in Manitoba, you’d assume that province would show up as extremely wet. Not so. Since the first of April, the western side of Manitoba has had above average precip, but most of the eastern region is about normal. Most of Manitoba’s problems date back to a wet fall, followed by a winter with lots of snow. Except for some isolated areas, their springtime precipitation hasn’t really been that abnormal. The PFRA precip maps are at http://www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/drmaps_e.htm. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 20, 2005

Spending money and hoping
Despite problems from surplus water, the weekly crop report from Saskatchewan Agriculture confirms that overall crop conditions in Saskatchewan are very promising. Crop conditions are reported as good to excellent for at least 80 per cent of all crops. With those prospects, producers are spending money. There is topdressing of extra nitrogen in an attempt to maximize yield potential. With the storms of the past week, sales of hail insurance will be brisk. It looks like there’s a good crop to insure and with all the moisture on the ground, it’s logical to expect severe thunderstorms. Crop Insurance does not include spot loss hail coverage and overall coverage is typically much less than the value of a good crop. If conditions remain favourable, there will also be a lot of producers buying more grain bins. Grain carryover from last year will be high. Good yields on top of that carryover will outpace storage capacity. For a lot of producers, cash and credit are strained to the limit, but many are finding the resources to make extra investments. There’s a lot riding on this crop coming through. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 19, 2005

Heavy rain woes continue
This could be one of the best crop years ever for producers in some parts of the prairie region. In other areas, the year is going to be a complete washout. Over the weekend, there was serious flooding in Alberta and big storms in southern Manitoba. The extent of crop damage is still being determined. Here in Saskatchewan, there’s a range of conditions. Getting crops sprayed for weeds is a common concern. There will be a lot of acres that never get sprayed. The crop is getting too advanced. Some areas have suffered considerable crop flooding and many producers in eastern Saskatchewan were unable to complete seeding. The situation is much worse in Manitoba. Large areas of Manitoba are a mess. Even with extensive use of airplane seeding, substantial acreages are unseeded. In hard hit areas, much of the land is under water. It’s difficult to quantify the extent of the problems across the prairies. The industry will be watching closely as this week’s provincial crop reports are released. It will also be interesting to see what the Canadian Wheat Board has to say in its annual crop and weather briefing that will be held Wednesday afternoon. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 17, 2005

Training assistance program for farmers
A new federal – provincial program has been announced under the Ag Policy Framework to help farmers and their spouses pay for the cost of training programs. It’s called CASS, the Canadian Agricultural Skills Service and nearly $22 million has been allocated to this province. Specifically CASS will provide financial assistance to help develop learning plans and access training in areas such as business management, accrual accounting, finance, human resource management or training to acquire skills for starting a new business. The goal is to help increase family farm income. An assessment and individual learning plan valued at $2,000 will be developed for all eligible participants. Training course tuition and related costs such as textbooks, dependent care and even travel can be covered to a maximum of $16,000. The disappointing aspect of the CASS program is that to be eligible for the full $16,000, average family income must be less than $35,000 a year. Farm families with an average combined income of over $45,000 are not eligible at all. The criteria will disqualify a lot of farm families who work off the farm to try and earn a decent living. More information is available through the Agriculture Knowledge Centre in Moose Jaw at 1-867-457-2377. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 15, 2005

CropCam can do your field scouting
One of the many new inventions at this year’s Western Canada Farm Progress Show in Regina is a mini-agricultural airplane called the CropCam. It flies a pre-determined flight path over a quarter section of land taking high-resolution digital images of the field. You just launch it from a corner of the field and it flies its pattern and comes back to land in the spot where it started. Then you can download all the images of the field. Each image is fully GPS referenced so you know just where in the field it came from. The CropCam weighs six pounds, has a wingspan of 8 feet and has a price tag of $10,000. It’s certainly not cheap, but it does provide a unique look at entire fields in a matter of minutes. It isn’t a device most farmers will buy, but it may be a tool provided to farmers on a fee-for-service basis. CropCam is a division of MicroPilot Inc. based at Stony Mountain, Manitoba. Company officials hope the CropCam will become an important tool to aid in the precision application of crop protection products. New inventions at Farm Progress Show are in the Saskatchewan Building this year. There’s a lot to see. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 14, 2005

Live animal test for BSE being announced
On Thursday, at a news conference in Calgary, a company called Vacci-Test Corporation will announce that it has developed the world’s first live diagnostic test for BSE in cattle. Vacci-Test is a private Alberta biotechnology company. One of the people on the board of directors is Charlie Mayer, a former federal Agriculture Minister. The company claims it has patented technology that can provide a precise evaluation of the immune system through a simple blood test. It further claims that it will soon have a simple, reliable and inexpensive live animal test for BSE. It’s the sort of test that can be done on cattle in the field with results readable in less than 30 minutes. If the technology proves to be everything Vacci-Test is saying, it could change the trade of cattle and beef around the world. It might be possible to virtually stamp out BSE. Of course, scientists and policy makers around the world will have to be convinced and that could take some time. Still, this could be an extremely significant development. More information should be available following the news conference on Thursday. I’m Kevin Hursh.

Flooding problems in eastern prairies
Surplus moisture is the biggest problem facing Saskatchewan crops right now, particularly on the eastern side of the province. The weekly crop report from Saskatchewan Agriculture says there has been flooding damage in a number of areas. Some producers haven’t been able to finish seeding and wet fields have hampered weed control efforts. However, the situation is much worse in Manitoba. According to the crop report by Manitoba Agriculture, a sizable acreage in that province is unlikely to be seeded before the June 20 Crop Insurance deadline. Reports from the Starbuck area indicate that 40 to 50 per cent of the district will not get seeded. In the Interlake region, seeding progress varies from 100 per cent down to 10 per cent. Manitoba Agriculture says a few farmers have not seeded any acres. In many parts of Manitoba, substantial acreages are under water, crops are yellowing from excess moisture and spraying has been hampered. Some fields will not get sprayed. There’s a shortage of aerial applicators, many herbicides are not registered for aerial application and the crops and weeds will soon be past the proper stage. It hasn’t been a good start to the growing season for Manitoba. I’m Kevin Hursh.

Flooding on the eastern prairies
Surplus moisture is the biggest problem facing Saskatchewan crops right now, particularly on the eastern side of the province. The weekly crop report from Saskatchewan Agriculture says there has been flooding damage in a number of areas. Some producers haven’t been able to finish seeding and wet fields have hampered weed control efforts. However, the situation is much worse in Manitoba. According to the crop report by Manitoba Agriculture, a sizable acreage in that province is unlikely to be seeded before the June 20 Crop Insurance deadline. Reports from the Starbuck area indicate that 40 to 50 per cent of the district will not get seeded. In the Interlake region, seeding progress varies from 100 per cent down to 10 per cent. Manitoba Agriculture says a few farmers have not seeded any acres. In many parts of Manitoba, substantial acreages are under water, crops are yellowing from excess moisture and spraying has been hampered. Some fields will not get sprayed. There’s a shortage of aerial applicators, many herbicides are not registered for aerial application and the crops and weeds will soon be past the proper stage. It hasn’t been a good start to the growing season for Manitoba. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 12, 2005

A break in the Aussie drought
Rain came to drought-stricken regions of Australia over the weekend. Most of eastern Australia has been in the grip of a terrible dry spell. For instance, New South Wales has been widely reported as having the worst drought in a century. Rainfall amounts were variable, but a widespread region seems to have received an inch to an inch and a half. Some Aussie producers say this is the best rain they’ve had in years. Most Australian crops are seeded in our spring, which is their fall. It’s too hot and dry for them to grow crops in their summertime. In many areas, producers had been holding off with the seeding of cereal crops. It was too dry to seed. Now, there will be a big hurry to get crops into the ground. Aussie farmers will be working long hours. The Australian drought has been one of the factors providing some support for world grain prices. It’ll be interesting to see if the market reacts to this rainfall event. One good rain doesn’t make up for months of drought, but the situation down-under is now a lot more optimistic. Producers there are hoping this is a sign of more rain to come. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 9, 2005

Saskatchewan announces meat processing incentive
The province of Saskatchewan finally has an incentive program in place to support the development of more slaughter and processing capacity. The centerpiece of the plan is an investment rebate of 15 per cent. It’s for federally inspected slaughter and/or processing capacity – either new facilities or expansions. Beef, pork, bison and elk are all eligible. Proponents must have undertaken appropriate due diligence through the development of a feasibility study and a comprehensive business plan. A 15 per cent rebate on expenditures will be a tremendous help. The province has committed nearly $33 million to the program over the next three years. It’s an intelligent policy. It doesn’t play favourites or pick winner and losers. It recognizes that more slaughter capacity is needed for all the kinds of livestock we produce. And it targets federally inspected facilities that are able to export. Provincially inspected plants cannot export, even to other provinces, and there’s little chance they will ever be able to. Although some details remain to be worked out, the program should not be complicated. About the only criticism is the length of time it took the province to come out with the plan. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 8, 2005

Catch and use that water
A tremendous surge of water is going to flow into Saskatchewan from the heavy rainfall areas of Alberta. The South Saskatchewan River, in particular is going to rise dramatically. It’s amazing how many people have a scarcity mindset when it comes to water in Saskatchewan. Truth is, most of the water that flows into the province flows back out again unused. We utilize only a tiny percentage of our allotment. Most scientists believe the climate will get drier and hotter in the years ahead. And they say the glaciers are retreating. Sure, we should all look for ways to conserve water, but the province does not have a shortage of water for industry, irrigation and urbanization. And even if you accept the theories on climate change, many of the models also show more variability and more weather events such as heavy rainfall. We just need to capture and utilize what nature and geography is providing. We do have a shortage, but it’s a shortage of reservoirs and infrastructure to make use of the water that comes in. We need more than just Lake Diefenbaker. Heavy inflows like the one we’re about to experience should remind us that we’re blessed with an abundance of water. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 7, 2005

Winners and losers on farmland property tax
The provincial 8 per cent tax credit on the education portion of property tax notices for 2005 and 2006 does not necessary mean that your property tax bill will decrease. That’s because there has been a major reassessment. For farmland and pastureland, the assessment has reverted to a system based on productive value, rather than market value. The total agricultural land assessment is the same as last year, but there are big shifts from one area to another and even between cultivated land and pastureland. For instance, in the RM of Buchanan in east central Saskatchewan, the total assessment has increased by 38 per cent. The RM has decided to be revenue neutral and is decreasing its mill rate. The school district in the area is only dropping its mill rate slightly. That will mean a sizeable increase in the education tax collected from farmers. In the next month, farmers will start getting their tax notices and will know if they are paying more or less than last year. While there will be winners, it appears that a substantial number of producers will be paying more despite the province’s 8 per cent credit on education tax. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 6, 2005

Turn up the sun
Heat units and crop development are running ahead of last year, but behind average. Bruce Burnett, the head of weather and crop surveillance for the Canadian Wheat Board says heat unit calculations differ depending upon how you measure them and what you consider the start of the growing season, but in general, heat units are currently 75 to 85 per cent of normal. The coolest weather has been on the eastern side of the prairies – the area that’s also the wettest. Last year at this time, heat units were only 60 to 70 per cent of normal. Burnett points out that the weeks ahead are really important. June is typically warm with long days and that’s when heat units really accumulate. If the weather remains cool, we could fall well behind normal in crop development. If the weather warms up, we could quickly make up for lost time. Most areas of Saskatchewan have adequate or even surplus moisture. In fact, Sask Ag and Food says flooding was the biggest cause of crop loss in the past week. In general though, rain makes grain as long as you have enough heat. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 5, 2005

Lower insurance premiums for grain bins that are anchored
A number of insurance companies are now offering a much lower rate for farmers who have their grain bins anchored. For some companies, this change in premiums has just come about recently. The bin anchors must be commercially manufactured. They have to be a screw in type and at least three inches in diameter. Having a bin anchored drops it down to the same rate as if there was a permanent foundation. That means a saving of about 50 per cent. If you’re like me, you won’t get the lower rate unless you ask about it. My annual policy renewal had the same rates as always. When I called and inquired about bin anchors, my insurance person did some checking and found out that rates had changed in January for grain bins that are properly tied down. Some of the other insurance companies have made the same change in the last year or two. When a tornado hits a farmyard, it might not matter whether bins are anchored or not. But bin anchors can provide protection from a lot of high winds, so it makes sense that the insurance premium is lower. The lower premium can quickly pay for the cost of bin anchors. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 2, 2005

Eat your pulse crops
Work is underway to increase pulse consumption in North America. I have to admit – even though I grow pulse crops like lentils and peas, I don’t consume them very often. What about you? Given the health benefits of pulse crops, working to increase consumption right here in the premium North American marketplace seems like a great idea. Pulse Canada is getting a three year - $3 million grant from the feds under the Agriculture Policy Framework to fund the Pulse Innovation Project. By working with food companies and food ingredient suppliers through the Pulse Innovation Project, it’s hoped that more pulse products will be available on grocery store shelves. The project will also include a health and wellness strategy. Research has found that people who choose foods with a low glyceamic index as part of their normal diet have lower blood sugar levels. That means they have a lower risk of developing heart disease and diabetes later in life. Foods, such as pulses, that have a low glyceamic index release their sugars in a more controlled way. This is the kind of information that can be used to promote pulses in North America. Peter Watts, who was a prominent analyst with the Canadian Wheat Board, has been hired by Pulse Canada to lead the Pulse Innovation Project. I’m Kevin Hursh.

June 1, 2005

Fully fund CAIS rather than some new program
The opposition Saskatchewan Party is pointing out the extra revenue flowing into provincial coffers because the world price of oil has remained higher than the government projected. The Sask Party suggests one use for this extra revenue would be for the Calvert government to fully fund its share of the CAIS income stabilization program for 2005. Meanwhile, APAS, the Agricultural Producers Association of Saskatchewan, continues to lobby the province for an immediate cash injection for the agriculture sector. The lobby effort by APAS is well intentioned, but it doesn’t make sense to lobby for a new program when the province has failed to fully fund an existing farm safety net. The Saskatchewan Party has it right. Best to push for full CAIS funding rather than some sort of ad hoc program. After all, full funding of CAIS is needed just to bring Saskatchewan farmers up to the same level of protection as farmers in all the other provinces. It’s also reasonable to lobby for significant and permanent reductions on the education tax paid on farmland. This continues to be a major injustice despite the tax credit that will be applied this year. I’m Kevin Hursh.

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