566 Adilman
Drive, Saskatoon, SK Canada, S7K 7H5
Tel: (306) 933-0138 Fax: (306) 249-4869
kevin@hursh.ca
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Hursh on AgricultureMay 29, 2008 Stewards of the landEvery now and then something happens that’s to remind us that our farmland was in production long before most of us were ever farming. Yesterday, walking across a field and looking closely at the emerging canola plants, I discovered a piece of old chain with a metal clasp at the end – no doubt something that harkens back to horse drawn implements. A couple days earlier when checking the seed and fertilizer flow on the air drill I found an old horseshoe perfectly fitted over one of the seed boots. For years, that horseshoe must have been pushed back and forth during field operations. This year, a seed boot caught it just right and it held on. With modern farming methods, we probably don’t leave as many artifacts for future generations to find. As well, with the big acreages of modern farms, a producer doesn’t know every knoll and draw the way the original settlers did. One thing is common though. Every producer has only a limited number of growing seasons. No one really owns the land. We’re just stewards for a short time. I’m Kevin Hursh. New crop pricing opportunities Some excellent new crop prices are available. CGF Brokerage and Consulting of Saskatoon is advising growers to lock in the good prices on a portion of expected production. Here are some of the new crop bids that CGF says are available. Large green lentils for new crop are listed at just under 39 cents a pound. They’ve risen to meet the price of red lentils which are at over 40 cents. Small green lentils have risen to over 30 cents. On peas, new crop bids on yellows are still available at $9.00 or more per bushel. New crop chickpeas prices have risen with the 10 mm size now at 44 cents and eight mm at 34 cents. New crop mustard prices have remained steady at attractive values. Fifty cents is available on yellow mustard, with 45 cents on brown and 40 cents on oriental mustard. New crop canaryseed bids are about the same as current price levels at around 30 cents a pound. Flax is listed at $17 a bushel for No. 1 grade and $17.75 a bushel for milling grade. Prices could always go higher, but if these were the worst prices for new crop production, they’d still be very good. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 28, 2008 How much rain did ya get?Highway No. 4 tends to be the dividing line between areas with good moisture conditions and those that need more rain. The PFRA drought watch map of growing season precipitation, April 1 to May 25, shows that Alberta and the west side of Saskatchewan have generally had average to above average springtime precipitation. The eastern two-thirds of Saskatchewan and almost all of Manitoba are running below normal. There has been some welcome rain in eastern regions recently, while Alberta has had some very large precipitation totals in the past week. Highway 4 runs through Meadow Lake, North Battleford, Biggar, Rosetown and Swift Current. North Battleford, Biggar and Rosetown are above average while Meadow Lake and Swift Current are below normal precip, but that highway is roughly the dividing line for the Prairies. Saskatchewan Agriculture’s crop report shows that north eastern Saskatchewan as well as some east central and south eastern areas still consider topsoil moisture conditions on cropland to be adequate, so the below normal precip is not a concern in all eastern regions. Overall, 49 per cent of the cropland in the province is rated as having adequate topsoil moisture with 51 per cent rated as short or very short. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 27, 2008 Pod Ceal to be distributed in Canada by BrettYoungBrettYoung Seeds has announced that it has a marketing agreement for a product called Pod Ceal DC. It’s a product producers can apply to their canola crop to prevent the pods from shattering. Thus, the canola can be straight combined without harvest losses. BrettYoung says Pod Ceal DC performs best when application is made as the first pods transition from dark green to light green. The polymer coating is supposed to be effective for 40 days following application. In addition to minimizing shattering losses, the company says Pod Ceal allows the canola crop to stand until fully ripe, which can be important in fields where development is irregular. With Pod Ceal, later plants are allowed the opportunity to grow and ripen. Allowing a crop to reach full maturity maximizes the yield and the oil content. Two ten-litre jugs treat 40 acres. For ground application, typically 20 gallons of water per acre would be used to get sufficient coverage. For air application, five gallons of water would be typical. The announcement does not include information on the cost. There are many growers who would prefer to straight cut canola, but the savings have to be weighed against the cost of the product and the cost of application. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 25, 2008 Rural Saskatchewan is boomingFor decades, rural Saskatchewan has been emptying out. With some notable exceptions, the populations of towns, villages and rural municipalities across the province have been dwindling. According to conventional wisdom, the trend was largely irreversible. Farms have been getting larger and that means fewer people and more consolidated support industries. Most towns had scads of homes for sale with very few buyers. The past couple years what many thought impossible has happened. In a lot of small and large towns, you can hardly find a house to buy and if you do, the price has increased dramatically. Older houses that no one wanted a few years ago are being snapped up and renovated. Even houses in old farmyards are in demand. The resource industries are booming and the grain industry has tremendous optimism. People are moving back to Saskatchewan and it isn’t only the cities which are benefiting. Rural Saskatchewan still has issues and problems, but there has been an amazing reversal of fortunes. Local governments are scrambling to switch from survival mode to a growth mode. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 23, 2008 Wheat and durum are losing their lustreWhat goes up can also come down. The Pool Return Outlooks for wheat and durum have dropped sharply the past two months. Back in March the new crop PRO for No. 1 CWRS wheat with 13.5 per cent protein was $8.93 a bushel after deducting average Saskatchewan freight and handling. In April, the PRO dropped to $8.25. The spring wheat PRO this month is down to $7.62 a bushel. The Fixed Price Contracts that were available at ten dollars a bushel now look pretty good. On No. 1 durum with 13.0 per cent protein, the new crop PRO was $10.97 a bushel back in March. In April, that slipped to $10.42. This month, the durum PRO is down to $9.36 a bushel. Price projections have also dropped for wheat and durum sold in the current crop year, although not as dramatically. The spring wheat price for this crop year is now projected to be $8.52 a bushel, while durum is at $12.08. What has happened with wheat and durum will happen to every commodity. Prices won’t go up forever. At some point, it’s prudent to lock in profitable price levels if the opportunity arises. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 22, 2008 Food labelling change is overdue and popularIt seems like overkill to have the Prime Minister announce a change in food labelling guidelines. However, in this case the changes make so much sense and are so widely supported that the Prime Minister no doubt wants to align himself with the popular move. Even the National Farmers Union supports this Conservative initiative. Incredibly the way the rules are now, imported food products can be repackaged and labelled as “Product of Canada” if 51 per cent of the total packaged product cost was incurred in Canada. Thus, a “Product of Canada” may have been grown somewhere else entirely. Under the proposed new guidelines, when a label says “Product of Canada” both the contents and the processing must be all or virtually all Canadian. Who could disagree with that? A qualified “Made in Canada” label can be applied to products containing imported ingredients as long as the products are manufactured or processed in Canada. For instance, a label might read “Made in Canada from domestic and imported ingredients.” It’s amazing that the current guidelines, which can be very misleading, have been in place since the 80s. Change is long overdue. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 21, 2008 Another side to the ethanol debate In recent months, there has been a barrage of media reports slamming ethanol. Many observers are blaming ethanol production for high food prices. The Canadian Renewable Fuels Association is dedicating to defending biofuels and the association is pointing out that without ethanol and biodiesel, prices at the pump would be even worse.
May 20, 2008 Long weekend fear and loathingI’ve come to hate certain long weekends. It started with the Labour Day weekend in September when combining is usually underway. In recent years with very early starts to harvest, I’ve also come to hate the August long weekend. This year, with seeding later than normal in my area, I also had reason to hate the Victoria Day long weekend. There are a hundred and one things that can go wrong during harvest or seeding. The operations rely on some many pieces of equipment. In the spring, there’s also a long list of supplies to keep everything running. On a long weekend, the rest of the world understandably wants a break. But for farmers going full out with field operations, getting a tire fixed or replaced, or just getting a bit of extra innoculant for a pulse crop becomes a problem on the long weekend. Many of the establishments that serve producers provide some level of service even on statutory holidays. However, a machinery dealership can still be unable to access a part just because courier service is curtailed. I hate to drag someone in to work on what should be a holiday, but I’m sure happy to have that option. In fact, I welcome a service fee for after hours or holiday service. Unfortunately, due to Murphy’s Law, it seems that more things go wrong on the farm when the rest of the world has an extra day off. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 16, 2008 New crop pricing opportunitiesWith producers working long hours in the field, marketing decisions tend to be put on the back burner. However, there are some new crop pricing opportunities that you may want to consider. FarmLink Marketing Solutions out of Manitoba says flax prices have been creeping higher for both old crop and new crop. They’ve risen by about a dollar a bushel from a few weeks ago. FarmLink says for 2008 production, bids are now above $16 a bushel in some locations. Only a few small-scale buyers and edible flax processors are offering an Act of God clause on flax, says FarmLink, but they are offering similar prices to what bigger buyers are paying for flax without this protection. Some excellent new crop lentil bids are available. The one that’s the sweetest is red lentils which has been has high as 40 cents a pound. CGF Brokerage and Consulting of Saskatoon is currently listing new crop red lentil bids of just under 38 cents. CGF is also listing new crop large green lentil bids at nearly 33 cents. CGF is advising that it may be prudent to price reds at the very attractive prices available. Companies have been offering 600 pound contracts with an Act of God. Besides the attractive price, another reason to contract is to assure delivery opportunity in the September to November time frame. CGF is of the opinion that green lentils still have upside potential due to the large spread between reds and greens. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 15, 2008 Anydrous delivery delaysA new transportation regulation is causing delays in getting anhydrous ammonia fertilizer to producers. People in the industry say that under the old rule when a trucker was waiting in line to pick up anhydrous and transport it to retail outlets, the time clock would stop. If it took four hours to get loaded, that didn’t count as time on the trucker’s log book. Now it does. So a trucker waiting a long time to load anhydrous may not even get it to the retail destination before his or her maximum trucking time for the day expires. Sources say the Saskatchewan government is seeking an exemption for fertilizer transport during the critical seeding season. However, these are federal transportation rules and there’s been no indication the rules will change. A lot of producers used to band anhydrous in the fall or early in the spring. These days, an increasing number of producers are using anhydrous in their direct seeding operations. Having to stop the seeding outfit to wait for anhydrous is a major problem. Unfortunately, with the new rule, retail outlets are having trouble obtaining their anhydrous and they can’t distribute what they don’t have. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 14, 2008 Food products and health claimsNew food products are being continually developed. My question is how many of these new food uses will get beyond the niche stage to be significant for producers. Here’s an example. Scientists with Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada in Winnipeg are developing new barley and oat-based products for the North American market. They’ve developed a system that uses the whole kernel for improved nutritional benefits. Food scientist Dr. Nancy Ames says oats can be used to make pasta, soup and pancakes and as a substitute for wheat flour. She says barley is a nutritional powerhouse that is high in fibre, beta-glucan, antioxidants and vitamins. These nutritional characteristics may help reduce the risk of heart disease, stroke and cancer while boosting the immune system. Ames is working to identify varieties of oats and barley best suited to specific food products. She and her team have developed instant whole grain barley that can be used in salads, tacos, desserts, pilaffs and several other dishes. Tortillas made from 100 per cent barley flour are said to be a healthier alternative. However, even if oat and barley whole grain food products are healthy and tasty, how do you convince consumers? Consumers are bombarded with claims about what foods and drinks are healthy and I believe most have great difficulty in sorting out the facts from the fiction. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 13, 2008 Spring stress loadWith grain prices at profitable levels, it would be natural to assume that stress levels are lower among farmers this spring. While there is an undeniable enthusiasm, in many ways the stress level has been heightened. Farming is a high stakes game and this year the stakes are the highest ever. Most farmers are looking at an opportunity to make more money than they ever have in their farming career, but to make money you have to grow a crop. It’s the time of year for working crazy hours and spending crazy amounts of money on farm inputs. Investing $100 to $200 per acre in seed, fertilizer, fuel, crop protection products and crop insurance adds up to a pile of money over the thousands of acres that make up a typical farm. Many farmers in the south are facing poor soil moisture conditions, making them question their levels of investment in inputs. In many other areas, producers are struggling to get the crop in the ground on a timely basis, while still doing a good job of seeding and weed control. There are only so many hours in the day and there are always things that go wrong to eat up precious time. When you look at all the pieces of equipment that have to be running to get the crop in the ground, it’s little wonder that equipment breakdowns and the fear of breakdowns are major contributors to the spring stress load. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 12, 2008 Grain supply and prices in perspectiveThe National Farmers Union has put together statistics that put the increase in grain prices into perspective. The NFU says that although grain prices have gone up rapidly – far too quickly for the world’s one billion plus urban poor - grain prices are not high from a historical perspective. In fact, most grain and oilseed prices when adjusted for inflation remain below 50-year averages and far below record highs. For instance, in the 1973-74 crop year, Canadian farmers received an inflation-adjusted wheat price of $22 a bushel, while the average price for this crop year will be less than half that amount. The NFU also correctly points out that there is an increasing gap between what farmers are paid and what consumers have to pay for food. For several years, the NFU has tried to call public attention to shrinking world grain supplies. In seven of the past nine years, the world has consumed more grain than farmers have produced. The USDA projects global grain supplies at the end of the 2008- 09 crop year will be equivalent to about 57 days of consumption. Back in 2000, the grain supply was 115 days. The drawdown on stocks has been the fastest in the 49 years for which there is data. The NFU’s proposed solution is a food sovereignty / local food model rather than globalized agriculture. I don’t entirely agree with the NFU conclusions, but they have compiled some very interesting data and observations. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 9, 2008 Eastern side of Saskatchewan drySince the first of April, west central Saskatchewan has had well above normal precipitation, while southeast Saskatchewan is sitting at well below normal. The PFRA Drought Watch website (www.agr.gc.ca/pfra/drought/prpgs08_e.htm) has posted precip maps from April 1 to May 7. North Battleford, Rosetown and Kindersley are in an area with 1.5 times normal precip for that time frame. An area south west of the Battlefords is at two times normal. In south central Saskatchewan, an area around Gravelbourg is also above normal. Swift Current to Moose Jaw is about normal for growing season precip. The extreme southwest from Maple Creek south is below normal. And the entire province east of Prince Albert, Saskatoon and Regina is below normal. East of Melville and Weyburn has been the driest with less than 40 per cent of normal springtime precip. The dry conditions extend well into Manitoba. The map shows why southeast Saskatchewan leads in seeding progress, while many west central areas haven’t got much done. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 8, 2008 Glyphosate herbicide isn’t simple anymore. This has prompted Alberta Agriculture to post some glyphosate answers on its website. Original Roundup came with an active ingredient concentration of 360 grams per litre. Now there are all sorts or glyphosate products with different names in concentrations of 360, 480, 500 and 540 grams per litre. An application rate of half a litre per acre doesn’t mean much anymore unless you know what concentration of product you’re talking about. You have to do the math to figure out which product is the best bang for the buck. The products Credit, Glyfos, Sharpshooter, Sharpshooter Plus and Touchdown IQ have around 360 grams per litre. Maverick II and Vantage Plus Max are at 480. Touchdown Total is at 500. Factor 540, Renegade HC, Roundup Transorb HC, Roundup WeatherMax and R/T 540 have 540 grams per litre. And even though it’s all glyphosate, many of the products have different registered tank mixes. Some of the products are registered for use on Roundup Ready canola. Others are not. Glyphosate is the most popular herbicide in the world and the market has become crowded and complicated. Unfortunately the trend to cheaper glyphosate has reversed and it’s now costing significantly more money. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 6, 2008 The BSE testing debateWith the financial crunch hitting the beef sector, you hear many producers saying that Canada should test slaughtered animals for BSE to access other markets. So why aren’t we testing? Why do we remain so dependent on the American market? The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association provides some strong arguments. If, for example, a Japanese importer offered to purchase thousands of BSE-tested over thirty month cattle that probably wouldn’t matter. The Japanese government has not indicated that it will allow beef from cattle over 20 months of age, BSE-tested or not. The Canadian Cattlemen’s Association says it has never been told that BSE-tested animals would be guaranteed access to any markets on that one condition. The CCA also points out that BSE testing can provide a false sense of security. Even in the rare cases where animals are exposed to BSE, if they are tested at 20 months of age, they will not test positive. Plus, testing often provides a number of false positives that would disrupt the beef packing system while the test was confirmed. According to the CCA, blanket BSE testing would not replace the enhanced feed ban. The association says BSE testing costs of $24 to $75 a head would be in addition to the costs of the feed ban. I’m Kevin Hursh. What's a fair custom rate? Saskatchewan Agriculture has released its Farm Machinery Custom and Rental Rate Guide for 2008-09. This is a very useful publication if you’re getting some farm work done by someone else or if you’re providing custom work. The rates are based on a number of assumptions, so it’s important to read the full guide to understand how the calculations are made. Like everything else, custom rates are rising. Here’s a sampling of average custom rates from the guide. Air hoe drills - $15.54 an acre. Air disc drills - $18.57 an acre. Trucking the seed and fertilizer is extra. A three ton grain truck is $136 an hour. Self propel sprayers average $2.97 an acre. Grain vacs are four cents a bushel. Manure spreaders are about $60 an hour. Front end loaders on a 70 to 140 horsepower tracker are listed at $63.50 an hour. The average cost for a combine with a flex header is $23.40 an acre. The custom rate for hauling grain from one combine is 18 cents a bushel for the first mile, plus 1.6 cents for each additional mile. These are just the averages. The rate guide has different rates for different sizes of equipment and for differing hours of total use. The guide is available on the Sask Ag website or you can call the Agriculture Knowledge Centre in Moose Jaw. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 5, 2008 Big beef protest in South KoreaHere in North America, there’s very little consumer concern over BSE. Consumers generally have confidence in the beef supply, because there are many safeguards. Of all the things to worry about, BSE is way down the list. Contrast that with the attitudes in South Korea. Back on April 18, South Korea and the United States concluded an agreement whereby the South Korean market would fully reopen to all U.S. beef and beef products subject to international standards. South Korea has yet to open its border to Canadian beef. Published reports indicate that last Friday 10,000 South Koreans gathered in Seoul to peacefully protest their government’s decision to resume U.S. beef imports. Most of the 10,000 protesters were said to be people in their 20s and 30s. They gathered for a candlelight vigil in a plaza in downtown Seoul, where they blasted their government’s decision. No physical clashes took place, but it was a large protest. In addition to consumers, cattle producers in South Korea are also reported to be upset because they’re now forced to compete with less expensive U.S. beef. Home grown beef is said to have depreciated by 10 per cent shortly after the import decision was announced. BSE may not be a top of mind issue with North Americans, but it’s still a hot button issue in some other countries. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 2, 2008 Canadians still support biofuelsWith all the negative press about biofuels and with the United Nations saying biofuel production is a “criminal path” leading to a global food crisis it’s noteworthy that Canadians are still showing strong support for ethanol and biodiesel. The Canadian Renewable Fuels Association recently commissioned a poll on the topic. Obviously the association has a vested interest, but the questions asked in the poll were straight forward. Asked about the most important issue facing the country today, 21 per cent said it was the environment while another 21 per cent said the economy. Eleven per cent said the most important issue was fuel prices and energy costs, while 10 per cent said health care. Just one per cent said food prices were the top issue. The survey asked whether it was a good idea or bad idea to replace some of our fossil fuels with renewable fuels like biodiesel and ethanol. Seventy-one per cent said it was a good idea, while 20 per cent said it was bad. Another question asked respondents if they supported or opposed the Government of Canada proposal to require ethanol in gasoline and biodiesel in diesel by 2010. Seventy-four per cent supported the proposal, while only 20 per cent were opposed. Negative media coverage may alter public opinion at some point, but for now Canadians appear to support the use of biofuels. I’m Kevin Hursh. May 1, 2008 Wheat softens while lentils are hotWith seeding delays over a big portion of Saskatchewan, it’ll be interesting to see whether producers respond to market signals and switch some of their seeding intentions. The outlook for wheat prices continues to soften. The latest Pool Return Outlook for wheat was down sharply and the Fixed Price Contract for wheat and has been steadily dropping. When the Fixed Price Contract was first available at the end of February, producers could lock in top quality spring wheat at more than $10 a bushel. That price is now dropping down closer to $7. Meanwhile, lentil prices are showing amazing strength. Some of that may be due to the Statistics Canada seeding intentions report which indicated a slight decline in lentil acreage. CGF Brokerage and Consulting of Saskatoon is showing a large green lentil price of 37 cents a pound. New crop contracts are available at 32 cents for No. 1 grade. Red lentils are even higher. Current bids for old crop are over 42 cents and new crop contracts are available at around 33. Those are amazing prices. New crop mustard contracts are also amazing with oriental at 40 cents, brown at 45 cents and yellow mustard at 50 cents. Weather related seeding delays may give some producers time to adjust some of their acres to take advantage of emerging opportunities. I’m Kevin Hursh. ArchivesKevin Hursh's daily agricultural report is heard Monday through Friday on Swift Current (CKSW), Shaunavon (CJSN), Moose Jaw (CHAB), Estevan (CJSL), Weyburn (CFSL), Rosetown/Kindersley (1330/1210), Lloydminster (CKSA) and Melfort (CJVR).
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