Saskatchewan’s lentil crop is in big trouble. With about three million acres seeded, an average crop of lentils at prevailing prices should be worth three quarters of a billion dollars. With the weather conditions we’ve been having, there will be heavy losses. Recent heavy rains are flattening the crop canopy and in many cases, the plants are laying in the mud rotting from the bottom up. If the weather turns dry and if there’s some heat, it will help preserve quality and quantity. If we continue to get rain and clouds, it’s going to be an ugly harvest. Already there are many producers looking at a salvage operation rather than a bountiful harvest. Most of the production occurs on the bottom pods and those are the ones most likely to degrade. It’s a big production region and there are still many areas where the crop has good potential, but these are anxious times for lentil producers everywhere. Lentils aren’t the only crop in trouble, just the one in the forefront at the moment. The recent cool, wet weather has slowed crop maturation and many crops in many regions are at a huge frost risk. I’m Kevin Hursh.
The rain over the past week was not on the wish list for most farmers. As crops ripen, rain is going to become less and less welcome. Much of the Prairie grain belt has seen record high precipitation this growing season. The weather problems in Russia and Ukraine are the complete opposite of what we’re facing. Last Friday, I received an email from Al Hingston, a livestock consultant from Saskatchewan who is living in Ukraine. He reports that they’ve had temperatures in the high 30s and low 40s for several weeks now, occasionally accompanied by high winds. The corn fields have been blasted and look almost like dead ripe barley – pale yellow white. The sunflowers have finished flowering and the heads are hanging. Hingston wonders how the seeds will fill without rain. He reports that the winter crops have come off not bad, but he says the summer crops are going to take a terrible hit, at least in his Oblast. Reports indicate the hot, dry conditions there are widespread. Meanwhile, the problems of both Western Canada and the former Soviet Union pale in comparison to what people in Pakistan are facing. I’m Kevin Hursh.
There’s a third product choice for desiccating peas, lentils and chickpeas. Up until now, the only registered choices have been glyphosate and Reglone. Glyphosate provides control of perennial weeds in the crop, but it’s very slow for crop dry down. Reglone provides fast dry down, but in heavy crops it doesn’t always penetrate to the bottom of the canopy. Reglone is also quite expensive. The new choice is CleanStart from Nufarm. It has just received registration. CleanStart has been used as a burnoff at seeding time and in chem fallow. It contains glyphosate as well as a Group 14 herbicide called carfentrazone. The glyphosate will provide perennial weed control and it’s a systemic product that will keep working to dry the crop. The carfentrazone will provide a faster dry down than glyphosate alone. It’s important that producers use only registered products for desiccation. When a product is applied close to harvest time, it will typically leave a tiny, but measureable residue in the seed. On registered products, MRLs, Maximum Residue Levels have been established. On unregistered products, any detection of a residue could result in all sorts of problems in the marketplace. If you’re desiccating pulse crops, go with Reglone, glyphosate or CleanStart. I’m Kevin Hursh.
One of the major frustrations for producers at this time of year is crop movement. In many cases, grain that was supposed to be off the farm by the end of July is still taking up bin space. This can apply to CWB grains as well as whole host of other crops. Even when there are contracts to take grain by a certain date, those deadlines are often missed. At their end, buyers can face all sorts of logistical and sales problems, but all too often they seem to over-promise what can be accomplished. Last minute grain movement ends up being another job added to the list of pre-harvest tasks. The crunch comes when harvest is starting before all the promised grain movement has occurred. Having enough bin space isn’t usually a problem early in the harvest season, but undelivered grain might be sitting in specific bins that are earmarked for new crop production. Beyond that, there’s the question of manpower. No one wants to shut down a combine to go clean out bin bottoms. As a result, grain is sometimes consolidated from flat bottom bins into hopper bottom bins at this time of year so that loading trucks will be less labour intensive. It seems that you never have too much bin space and you never have too many hopper bottom bins. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Cooler than normal with high humidity and a good chance of showers. That seems to be the forecast over the days ahead. For producers in most areas of the province, it isn’t what they want to hear. Recent warm weather has helped advance crop maturity, but we now seem to be in a cooler, wetter cycle. That’s problematic on a number of fronts. Some areas have received heavy rain that’s lodging crops and re-introducing excess water problems. Hailstorms have also been common. Beyond that, the longer crops hang green, the bigger the threat of frost. Everybody remembers 2004 when a huge chunk of the grain belt had a killing frost on August 20. Some field pea crops are nearing maturity and a few were being combined, but harvest is now delayed. Some lentil crops have been desiccated while others have been swathed. Crop quality is likely to deteriorate as the weather conditions prevent drying. Hopefully, this cool, damp spell will be short lived. Otherwise, it could be costly. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Last week, the price of wheat made national headlines. Drought in the Former Soviet Union has been pushing wheat prices higher. When Russia announced a temporary ban on wheat exports, the market spiked last Thursday and that’s when much of the media attention was generated. Some of the media reports felt it necessary to delve into what this means for consumers and the poor people of the world. One national television report said the price of a loaf of bread could increase by 30 cents. That’s extremely inaccurate. The Canadian Wheat Board has released some statistics to set the record straight. First of all, the value of wheat accounts for less than 10 per cent of the cost of a loaf of bread. A bushel of wheat makes about 67 standard loaves. At a wheat price of $4.50 a bushel, there is about 7 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. Wheat futures on Thursday spiked to over $8 a bushel. At that price, there’s still only 12 cents worth of wheat in a loaf of bread. That five cent increase is a far cry from the 30 cents reported. It should also be noted that wheat fell back sharply on Friday and the price was little changed yesterday. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Oats is an interesting commodity that has seen a number of market changes in recent years. According to a recent report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canada is the world’s third largest oat producer and the world’s number one oat exporter. About 95 per cent of our oat exports are to the U.S. market. Starting in 1995, the European Union provided Finland and Sweden with oat export subsidies. When those export subsidies ended in 2006, Finnish and Swedish oat exports to the U.S. were curtailed and Canada captured that business. Within Canada, oat production has become concentrated in the Prairie region, particularly Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The two provinces have market access and transportation advantages to the main U.S. market of Minneapolis. Oats continue to have a prominent place in the milling market for human food uses, but many U.S. horse markets have replaced oats with pelleted corn rations. The Ag Canada analysis says oats will have a difficult time recapturing the horse market. The medium term forecast calls for a continued decline in North American oat acres as producers gravitate to more profitable cropping options. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Wheat futures prices have been soaring higher due to drought in the Former Soviet Union as well as Canada’s excess moisture problems. The rising market gained momentum yesterday with the announcement by Russia that it’s placing a temporary ban on wheat exports. Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed yesterday at $8.29 a bushel. Back in June, the price was only about $4.50. Market analysts say the world stocks to use ratio for wheat isn’t really that short, certainly not as short as a couple years ago, but wheat is zooming higher anyway. Futures have now reached a 23-month high. No one can predict with any certainty where wheat prices will go in the weeks and months ahead. Maybe they’ll go higher. Maybe they’ll drop back. The Canadian Wheat Board is alerting producers that there are pricing options available to lock in some of the current rally. If the rally is short-lived, it won’t be reflected in the annual pooled price. Right now, with a Fixed Price Contract, producers can lock in a wheat price that’s about $1.50 a bushel higher than the current Pool Return Outlook. The CWB has reps available to explain the various pricing options. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Saskatchewan crops are later than normal and frost remains a huge threat. However, the earliest seeded crops – crops that were in the ground before the end of April – aren’t very far away from harvest. Over the past couple weeks there has been a marked change in their maturity. I haven’t seen any combines rolling on field peas, but I’ve seen quite a few fields that should be only a week or two away. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are peas being harvested somewhere. The same goes for winter cereals. And there are some marvelous winter wheat crops around. There are also some early seeded canola fields that look absolutely excellent and a few of those are starting to change colour. I have heard of some canola being swathed. I have also heard reports of lentils that will soon be desiccated. However, the lentils I’ve seen in my travels are mostly still very green with only an occasional patch that’s starting to ripen. For the vast maturity of producers in Saskatchewan, any harvest activity is still weeks away, but on early crops in the southern grain belt, harvest is beginning. I’m Kevin Hursh.
How many acres of lentils will we harvest in Western Canada this year? What will the total production be? Looking at Canada and the world, what are lentil prices likely to do? The latest Pulse Market Report from Saskatchewan Pulse Growers addresses those questions, but there’s another new report most growers won’t have seen that does a really good job of analyzing the lentil market. That report is from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and while government documents are often long on words and short on conclusions, this one impressed me. It pegs our harvested area at 2.8 million acres. That’s up from last year’s 2.3 million acres, but it’s a lot lower than the intended acreage due the moisture problems this spring. The Ag Canada analysis assumes lower lentil yields this year, so total production is expected to decline on large green lentils while increasing modestly on red lentils. Most interesting is that the report includes price projections. The average producer price in the last crop year for the top grade of large green lentils is pegged at 34 cents a pound. The price forecast for this new crop year is 29 cents. On small green lentils, the price last year averaged 28 cents a pound. A price of 25 cents is expected this year. The red lentil price last year averaged 30 cents. The forecast price for this crop year is 26 cents. I’m Kevin Hursh.