While some producers in southeastern Saskatchewan, depending upon topography, persistence, equipment and luck were able to seed 20, 40 or even 60 per cent of their farm, there are also producers who didn’t turn a wheel. Not surprisingly, there are increasing calls for government assistance. The first line of defense is crop insurance where the unseeded acreage benefit was increased from $50 to $70 an acre this year. After the various deductions under the formula, the amount actually paid will probably average closer to $60 per unseeded acre. On any land that emerges from the water, weed control will be needed. In many cases, tillage will be necessary to get the land back into shape for the next crop year. It won’t be hard to spend most or all of the unseeded acreage payment. Then there are the farm’s fixed costs: machinery depreciation, interest payments, insurance payments, property taxes and living expenses. These costs continue even with no crop to harvest. On some farms, fixed costs may be $70 an acre while on other farms they may be over $100. While $60 or $70 per acre from crop insurance may sound like a lot of money, producers with a sizable acreage of flooded land stand to lose a lot of money. The problem is compounded for producers who also had flooded land in 2010. Last year, when the unseeded acreage payment was only $50 an acre, the federal and provincial governments provided an additional $30 an acre top-up whether or not the land was enrolled in crop insurance. The assistance was announced on July 8. For 2011, governments advised producers to protect themselves by being in the crop insurance program, a suggestion that no additional money would be coming. That’s how farm safety nets should work. There shouldn’t be a need for ad hoc programs. And extra assistance shouldn’t depend on the magnitude of the problem. If your land is flooded, you should get the same support whether the problem is just on your farm or across the entire region. But it’s hard not to sympathize with producers facing unprecedented water levels. Through no fault of their own, many are going to have a difficult time scraping together enough cash and credit to seed a crop in 2012. On some land, the water level is so high that 2012 is also in jeopardy. AgriStability, which provides support based on past reference margins, will be a substantial help for some, but it’s long been criticized for being erratic and unpredictable. It will leave many farm families to fall through the cracks. If you provide additional support for grain producers, an argument can also be made for assistance geared to livestock producers with hay and pasture land under water. Providing government support is never simple. It’ll be interesting to see how the flood politics plays out. I’m Kevin Hursh.
The maps are always a bit behind and they aren’t always perfectly accurate for localized areas, but it’s still very interesting to follow the precipitation maps published by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Just google “Drought Watch” and you’ll be able to find the website. As of the end of May, the central and northern grainbelt of Saskatchewan was well below normal springtime precipitation. In fact, from Saskatoon to North Battleford to Lloydminster and up to Meadow Lake, precipitation was less than 40 per cent of normal. Melfort and Tisdale were also below 40 per cent. The most recent maps give precipitation totals up until June 19 and the situation has changed dramatically. There are a few areas with 60 to 85 per cent of normal precipitation, but most of the central and northern grainbelt is now up to normal precipitation since April 1. Meanwhile, the area with more than double the normal springtime precip has expanded and includes Gravelbourg, Coronach, Weyburn, Estevan and over to Brandon. In fact, if you check the percentile map, this area is now record wet. It’s never had more springtime precipitation since records have been kept. I’m Kevin Hursh.
Would you like to go to world’s No. 1 farm equipment show? Agritechnica is held every second year in Hanover, Germany. The next show is the middle of November. I’m working with STEP, the Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership to make the trip more attainable for interested Canadian producers. Travelling as a group will provide travel and accommodation advantages. Plus, it’ll be a great networking experience. A number of ag journalists are likely to tag along with us. There will be a couple days of touring in the Hanover area including the Class manufacturing plant, a seed production farm and a couple bioenergy facilities. And there will be four days to attend Agritechnica. Representatives from Agritechnica held a show preview during the Western Canada Farm Progress Show in Regina. Agritechnica is going to be bigger than ever and there will be more Canadian companies in attendance than ever before. Here’s a link to the PowerPoint presentations used during the preview:
http://www.agritechnica.com/preview_event_canada_2011.html
If you’d like to know more about the group travel plans and the cost involved, just shoot me an email – kevin@hursh.ca.
Durum prices have nowhere to go but up. Bruce Burnett, the director of weather and market surveillance for the Canadian Wheat Board spoke to a farmer meeting yesterday at the Western Canada Farm Progress Show in Regina. Burnett says only about 40 per cent of the North Dakota durum crop has been seeded due to the same wet conditions plaguing southeastern Saskatchewan and much of Manitoba. Here in Western Canada, the durum acreage is higher than last year, but not nearly as high as the seeding intentions estimate from Statistics Canada. North Africa has a good durum crop, but they’ve been receiving a lot of rain in their harvest period and that is expected to downgrade quality. Burnett says that on the international market, durum is running at a $4 a bushel premium to spring wheat. In the May Pool Return Outlook, the price projection for top grade new crop durum was in the $8 a bushel range after deducting average Saskatchewan freight and handling. Look for a substantial increase in the June PRO. I’m Kevin Hursh.